Romania’s 2024 Presidential Elections: The Data Story No One Saw Coming

Romania’s 2024 presidential elections didn’t just make waves: they divided society, polarised discussions, and questioned the objectivity of information. They also shook the foundations of traditional polling, forcing a rethink on how we gather and trust data. As the world watches, these results have sparked conversations about grassroots power, digital influence, and the glaring gaps in outdated methodologies. Where can we still place our trust?

For months, traditional polling agencies confidently pointed to Marcel Ciolacu, the PSD candidate, as the inevitable frontrunner. Supported by a well-oiled campaign machine and the full weight of the ruling party, his position seemed unshakable. Yet, as the votes were counted, a very different reality emerged.

Brainactive, the only source of independent polling in Romania, had already hinted at this shift. Traditional polls painted Ciolacu as the dominant force, but Brainactive’s data showed that two underdogs were rising. Călin Georgescu, an independent candidate with a TikTok-driven campaign, surged from a predicted 4% to an astonishing 16.4% in initial reports, eventually reaching 22.94%. Elena Lasconi, the reformist voice from USR, secured 19.18% and entered the second round alongside Georgescu. The ruling-party favourite, Ciolacu, fell to third place, underscoring the dramatic reshuffling of expectations.
And yet, despite its accuracy, Brainactive’s study was utterly ignored by traditional media outlets.

Brainactive’s polling wasn’t just accurate, it revealed a deeper truth about the changing dynamics of voter sentiment in Romania. This wasn’t just an election. It was a wake-up call for traditional polling, a wake-up call for objective information, and a manifesto against media manipulation.

Why Polling Often Gets It Wrong: A Methodological Blind Spot

The same story repeats every election cycle: discrepancies between pre-election polls, exit polls, and final results. Why? The issue lies in methodology.

Take the case of AtlasIntel, where sampling failed to reflect the general population, leading to skewed results. Beyond sampling errors, traditional polling struggles with cultural blind spots. In polarised environments like Romania’s, voters often avoid sharing their true preferences, fearing stigma or judgment. For instance, respondents may hesitate to disclose support for certain candidates, wary of being labelled as “radical” or “anti-establishment.”

Brainactive’s approach was different. On November 22, just days before the elections, our platform conducted a study using a nationally representative sample of 1,125 respondents, balanced for urban and rural demographics. The results? Clear, unfiltered insights that reflected the real momentum behind candidates like Georgescu and Lasconi.

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What’s the Lesson? A Practical Case for Transparent Data

What do we learn from this? Traditional polling isn’t necessarily “broken,” but its flaws are undeniable: outdated methodologies, small sample sizes, and partisan influence often create a distorted picture. So what can be done? How should we interpret data? And what can we truly rely on?

Brainactive’s study didn’t just reveal numbers. It showcased how real-time, AI-powered data can act as a tool for social predictability. By bypassing traditional gatekeepers and capturing nuanced public sentiment, Brainactive provided clarity, transparency, and actionable insights in a time of uncertainty.

This isn’t just about fixing polling. It’s about creating tools that empower voters, businesses, and policymakers to make informed decisions based on objective truth, not partisan agendas.

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How Brainactive Got It Right

While others relied on outdated practices, Brainactive leveraged cutting-edge methodologies to uncover the truth. Here’s how:

• Real Representation: The study included a balanced sample, weighted for demographics like age, region, and urban vs. rural populations, ensuring a true cross-section of Romanian society.
• Rapid Turnaround: Unlike traditional polls that take weeks to process, Brainactive delivered results within 48 hours using AI-powered analytics.
• Unfiltered Insights: Our platform captured the grassroots momentum behind Georgescu’s rise and the reformist appeal of Lasconi, avoiding the biases of traditional polls.

These insights are a testament to the power of modern, adaptive methodologies in uncovering real voter sentiment.

What Our Numbers Showed

Brainactive’s study painted a detailed picture of voter sentiment, revealing insights that traditional polls overlooked:

• Lasconi’s Leadership: At 21.4%, Lasconi emerged as a reformist force with broad appeal.
• Georgescu’s Surprise Surge: Starting as an outsider, Georgescu secured 16.4%, driven by a digital-first strategy.
• The Undecideds: With 16.6% of respondents undecided, Brainactive’s data revealed the critical importance of this segment in shaping outcomes.
• Second-Round Dynamics: Lasconi would secure 61.2% against Ciolacu in a hypothetical matchup, while Georgescu’s momentum hinted at a potential upset.

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TikTok and Truth: The Rise of Călin Georgescu

Călin Georgescu’s campaign is a case study in digital-first politics. Without the massive budgets or established machinery of larger parties, Georgescu tapped into TikTok to connect authentically with voters, especially younger audiences. Much like Trump’s Twitter strategy in 2016, Georgescu bypassed traditional media filters, building a movement that resonated deeply.

Traditional polls should have noticed this. They underestimated the influence of platforms like TikTok, which have become modern political battlegrounds. Brainactive, however, captured this real-time shift, highlighting unfiltered communication's growing role in shaping public sentiment.

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Polling, but Make It Modern

Polling isn’t obsolete; it just needs to evolve. The challenges of traditional methods highlight the need for agile, scalable, and transparent tools. Brainactive embodies this evolution:

• Automation-Driven Accuracy: AI ensures unbiased survey design, execution, and analysis.
• Direct Access to Respondents: With over 300 million consumers profiled globally, Brainactive provides unparalleled reach and granularity.
• Speed Meets Precision: Real-time insights eliminate the lag of traditional polling, ensuring decisions keep pace with changing dynamics.

These tools go beyond elections. From public policy to consumer research, Brainactive’s methodology offers a faster, more thoughtful way to understand complex societal trends.

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The Future of Polling: A Global Perspective

Romania’s 2024 elections serve as a powerful global case study for modern polling’s potential to reshape democratic processes. Here’s why it matters:

• For Voters: Independent data platforms like Brainactive help citizens see beyond partisan spin and make informed choices.
• For Democracies: Transparent, agenda-free polling rebuilds trust in institutions during an era of rising scepticism.
• For Businesses: The same methodologies that predict voter behaviour can help brands understand markets, validate ideas, and stay ahead of trends.

This isn’t just about fixing polling. It’s about redefining the role of data: as a beacon of transparency, a tool for empowerment, and a driver of progress for individuals, governments, and organisations alike. It’s about creating a future where data empowers everyone, from individual voters to multinational organisations.

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Data That Speaks for Itself, Not for an Agenda

Want to see how real, unfiltered insights can transform decision-making?Ready to abandon the limits of traditional, biased research? Try Brainactive for free, your gateway to independent, actionable data that reveals the world as it truly is.